基于改进等比例分配方法的我国各省二氧化碳减排目标分配

Allocation of carbon dioxide emission reduction targets in China based on the improved equal proportion distribution

随着我国一系列碳排放控制目标的提出,如何将碳强度减排目标公平合理地分配到不同省份成为学术界关注的重要问题。文中基于改进的等比例分配法和熵值赋权法,充分考虑各省份在碳排放驱动因素、减排能力、减排成本、排放水平等方面的差异,对我国2020年碳排放控制目标进行了分配。结果表明,在国家"十三五"期间碳强度下降18%的目标约束下,全国30个省的碳强度平均削减幅度为16. 33%,削减率在10.17%-27. 76%之间。其中,以天津、江苏等为代表的东部沿海地区和以内蒙古、山东、山西等为代表的重工业大省和能源输送大省,碳强度削减率高于全国平均水平,而大多数中西部欠发达省份的削减率则相对较低。在碳强度减排目标约束下,各地区应结合自身的经济社会发展特征选择差异化的低碳经济发展路径。

With a series of carbon emission control targets being put forward in our country,how to allocate carbon intensity emission reduction targets fairly and reasonably to different provinces has become an important issue of academic concern.In this paper,based on the improved equal-proportion distribution method and improved entropy method,taking full account of the differences in emission drivers,abatement capacity,emission reduction costs and emission levels in all provinces,the target of carbon emission control in 2020 is allocated.The results show that under the national target of carbon intensity reduction of 18%,the average reduction of carbon emission intensity in 30 provinces is 16.33% and the reduction rates are between 10.17% and 27.76%.For the eastern coastal areas represented by Tianjin and Jiangsu,as well as the major heavy industry provinces and energy transmission provinces represented by Inner Mongolia,Shandong and Shanxi,the reduction rate of the carbon emission intensity is higher than the national average reduction rate,and for the western provinces,the intensity reduction rate is below this level.Under the goal of carbon intensity emission reduction targets,all provinces should choose a differentiated path of low-carbon economic development,in light of their own economic and social development characteristics.