基于GAMLSS的雅砻江流域极端降水时空特性研究

Study on the Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in Yalong River Basin Based on GAMLSS Model

由于气候和环境变化,气象水文时间序列的非平稳性特征普遍存在,直接影响防洪兴利工程的设计和运行。研究基于MK趋势检验和GAMLSS非平稳性分析,以雅砻江流域为研究对象,选取流域内18个气象站自建站至2016年日降水值数据集,基于9个极端降水指标,分析降水极值的时空变化趋势,研究时间序列的非平稳性特征对频率设计值的影响。

The non-stationary characteristics of meteorological hydrological time series is widely existed due to climate and environmental change,which directly affect the design and operation of flood control and water resources projects. Based on MK trend test and GAMLSS non-stationary analysis,the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in Yalong River Basin is studied. The daily precipitation datasets of 18 meteorological stations from the time of putting into operation to 2016 in the basin are extracted,and based on nine extreme rainfall indexes,the spatiotemporal distribution and trend of extreme rainfall are analyzed and the influences of non-stationary characteristics on design values corresponding to different return period are studied.