基于DEA-Malmquist模型的西北地区能源空间转运格局效率及其变化分析

Analysis on the Efficiency and Change of Energy Space Transfer Pattern in Northwest China Based on DEA-Malmquist Model

西北地区有着丰富的能源资源,对其能源空间转运格局进行效率评价及全要素生产率时空演变分析,对推动整个地区的发展有着重要意义.运用DEA中的BCC模型,对2016年西北地区的铁路和公路货运效率进行研究.利用Malmquist指数方法及ArcGIS软件,进一步分析2010-2016年西北地区铁路、公路货运全要素生产率的时空演变和地区差异.研究表明:1)2016年西北地区铁路货运效率总体水平较高,公路中等;存在地区差异性,东部整体高于西部;规模效率决定其有效性.2) 2010-2016年铁路和公路的Malmquist指数整体较稳定,技术进步变化对该指数影响最大.从时空演变来看,2010-2016西北地区铁路货运的Malmquist指数先升后降,地区差异先减小后增大;公路货运的Malmquist指数先降后升,地区差异先减小后增大最后又减小.

As there are abundant energy resources in Northwest China, the efficiency evaluation of its energy space transfer pattern and the analysis of the spatial-temporal evolution of total factor productivity(TFP) are of great significance to the development of the entire region. Using the BCC model of DEA method, the efficiency of railway and highway freight transport in the northwestern region in 2016 was evaluated. With Malmquist index method and ArcGIS software, further analyze was put on the spatial-temporal evolution and regional differences of TFP of railway and highway freight transport in northwest China from 2010 to 2016. The research shows that: 1) In 2016, the overall efficiency of railway freight transportation in Northwest China was high, while the highway was medium;there was a certain regional difference, and the eastern region was higher than the western;Scale efficiency determines its effectiveness. 2) TFP index of railways and highways was generally stable from2010 to 2016, and changes in technological progress had the greatest impact on the index.In terms of the spatial-temporal evolution, TFP index of railway freight in Northwest China rose first and then decreased from 2010 to 2016. Regional differences decreased first and then increased;TFP index of highway freight fell first and then increased, and the regional differences decreased first, then increased and decreased finally.