经济学理论向模型的嬗变及其原因和影响

On the Transmutation of Economics from Theories to Models and the Causes and Effects

模型替代理论成为经济学研究的主流方法论"范式",是过去几十年内经济学领域发生的重要事件。从理论向模型的嬗变,早已孕育在两者微妙的关系中,进而又影响其概念内涵的变化及在经济学中的应用和地位。演化中的模型逐渐越出作为理论表达式的范畴,直至获得独立于理论和世界的自治地位;自治进路下的模型加速理论优先的消解,也将承担重塑知识结构和探究策略的重任。嬗变原因和影响表明,摆脱理论负荷的模型是计量经济学等研究的需要,也是经济学理论发展的必然。经济学建模工作开创了新天地,值得反思。如何与现实世界相连仍是经济学模型要面对和回答的难题,处于第三维度的模型理应融合形式化与修辞化等诉求,更好地沟通科学与人文。

It’s one of the most important events of last few decades in the domain of economics that models have taken place of theories, becoming the dominant methodological "paradigm" of economic inquiries.Transmutation from theories to models, which originated in the subtle relations between theories and models,has a lasting effect on concepts evolution and its application and position in economics. "Theory’s models"or "models of theory" are no longer an accurate description of the job of practicing economists, as models become much more independent from theories and realities in economics. Independent models had been destroying conventional theory-oriented inquiries, while reconstructing knowledge structure and inquiry strategy in economics. It’s evident from causes and effects of the transmutation that models without theoretical lading are not only needed by econometrics and other approaches of economics, but also the natural consequences of theories’ evolution. Modelling in economics has opened the door to new world of inquiry, while leaving us new problems. Models under autonomous approach may still face the issue of how to link with economic reality, and thus models are supposed to be merged with rhetoric of economics and other approaches in order for communication between science and the humanities.