中国森林生态安全时空格局演变及其障碍因子诊断

Evolution of Space-time Pattern of Chinese Forest Ecological Security and Its Obstacle Factor Diagnosis

文章运用改进的TOPSIS模型、等级动态度模型、Markov链模型、GIS空间分析方法和障碍度模型对2005—2015年中国森林生态安全的时空格局及障碍因子进行分析,结果表明:中国森林生态安全综合指数先下降后上升,森林生态安全等级由风险级下降到恶劣级,之后上升到比较安全级;中国森林生态安全等级存在跳跃式发展,"两极分化"现象日益显著;森林覆盖率、活立木蓄积量、有林地面积和森林病虫害发生率是影响中国森林生态安全的主要障碍因子。

This paper uses the improved TOPSIS model, hierarchical dynamic model, Markov model, GIS analysis method and obstacle degree model to analyze the spatial and temporal pattern and obstacle factors of forest ecological security in China from 2005 to 2015. The results show that the comprehensive index of forest ecological security in China first decreases and then increases, and the level of forest ecological security decreases from risk to severity, and then escalates to relatively safe level;the level of the Chinese forest ecological security is developing by leaps and bounds, with the "polarization" increasingly prominent;forest coverage, volume of living stock, forestland area and the incidence of forest pests and diseases are the main obstacles to the Chinese forest ecological security.