湖北农垦农业现代化水平及其制约因素研究

The development level and restrictive factors of agricultural modernization of state farms in Hubei Province

农业现代化是国家现代化的基础与保障,农垦是我国农业现代化建设的"排头兵",所以推进农垦的农业现代化建设对于全面建成小康社会、加快经济和社会发展具有重要意义。结合前期研究基础,跟踪湖北农垦农业现代化进程的新进展,本文构建了包含4个一级指标、20个二级指标的农业现代化水平评价指标体系,利用层次分析法(AHP)确定了各级指标的权重,分析2003—2017年湖北农垦农业现代化发展水平,测度探讨影响农业现代化发展的制约因素。结果表明,2003—2017年湖北农垦农业现代化水平整体呈上升趋势。2003年农业现代化综合指标得分为0.532 6,达到初步实现阶段;2014年农业现代化综合指标得分达到0.711 9,进入基本实现阶段;2017年农业现代化综合指标得分提升到0.714 1,但距离完全实现阶段(>0.9)尚有一定的距离。2017年除农业产出水平外,其他一级指标按制约度从高到低排序依次为农业可持续发展水平、农村社会发展水平和农业投入水平,制约度分别为0.499 1、0.295 5和0.205 4;从二级指标来看,劳均耕地面积、城镇化率和农业科技投入占农业增加值比重这几个制约因素的制约度较高,分别为0.390 7、0.246 2和0.180 1,成为阻碍湖北农垦农业现代化发展的最关键因素。因此,针对性地提出了发展资源循环型产业、提升社会公共事业、完善农业科技支撑体系、创建农垦特色产业体系等推动湖北农垦农业现代化建设的政策建议。

State farm is the basis and guarantee of China’s national modernization and the leading force for agricultural modernization.Therefore,promoting the development of modern agriculture is of great significance to building a welloff society and accelerating the economic and social development.Based on previous research and tracked the new progress,this paper built an evaluation index system,including 4 first level indexes and 20 second level ones,evaluated the development level of agricultural mod-ernization of state farms from 2003 to 2017 in Hubei and discussed the change of main restrictive factors.Results show that:from 2003 to 2017,the agricultural modernization level of state farms increased overall.In 2003,the comprehensive index was 0.532 6,showing a preliminary realization stage.In 2014,the comprehensive index was 0.711 9,reaching a basic realization stage.In 2017,the index increased to 0.714 1,meaning that there was still a big gap to the fully realized stage(>0.9).Currently,the 1 st level indexes,except the level of agricultural output,are ranked from high to low by the restriction degree as follows:the level of sustainable agricultural development,the level of rural social development,and the level of agricultural inputs,with degrees as 0.499 1,0.295 5 and 0.205 4,respectively.For the 2 nd level indexes,the following ones have high restriction degrees:the size of cultivated land,the level of urbanization,and the proportion of agricultural scientific and technological input to the increment of agriculture,with degrees of 0.390 7,0.246 2 and 0.180 1,respectively.Therefore,to promote agricultural modernization of state farms in Hubei,this paper provides the following policy suggestions:to develop resource circulating industry,to promote social public utilities,to perfect agricultural science and tech-nology supporting system,and to establish a state farm characteristic industry system.