基于最小生成树方法的中国生猪市场整合动态演变研究

The dynamic evolution of the hog market integration in China based on the Minimal Spanning Tree method

市场整合是衡量市场化水平和反应市场效率的重要指标,以往研究大多关注于市场整合水平的测度,但是却没有分析市场整合水平的动态变化过程。为此,本文应用最小生成树方法对2000—2016年中国生猪市场整合的动态演变过程进行研究。实证结果表明:中国生猪市场整合水平在不断地提升,其中2002—2009年是生猪市场整合水平的快速提升期,此后生猪市场整合达到了较高的水平;华东地区,尤其是山东省是影响全国生猪价格走势的"价格制定者",这些地区的生猪价格变动可以反映全国生猪市场价格的走势;最小生成树方法给出的上述研究结论具有较强的稳健性。最后提出政府应该将政策实施和生猪价格观测重点选择在山东省或者华东地区,并逐步减少政策干预,通过经济手段进一步提升生猪市场整合水平的政策建议。

Market integration is an important indicator to measure marketization level and market efficiency.Past research focused on the measurement but not the dynamic evolution of market integration.This paper adopted the Minimal Spanning Tree method to investigate the dynamic evolution of the hog market integration in China.Robust empirical results from the Minimal Spanning Tree show that the hog market integration is increasing gradually,especially,during period of 2002-2009.Afterwards,hog market integration has reached a higher level.Moreover,eastern China,especially,Shandong Province is a price leader,reflecting the trend of national hog price in China.Finally,this paper suggestions that the government should choose Shandong Province as the policy implementation and hog price observation region and use market measures rather than policy intervention to further promote hog market integration.