基于拥堵时空特征的区域分类与评价方法研究

Regional Classification and Evaluation Method Based on Congestion Temporal-spatial Characteristics

利用现有监测手段开展区域交通综合整治,科学设置交通分级预警标准是北京市缓堵工作的重要目标。为了直观性评价缓堵工作的治理效果,并及时识别路网运行效率低下的区域,以北京市25个出行热点区域作为研究对象,借助区域交通运行指数,解析热点区域的路网运行拥堵特征。应用系统聚类方法,发现依据区域拥堵特征可将研究区域划分为复合型、双峰型、晚延型3种类型,并对比分析不同类型下的区域路网运行状态。在此基础上,充分考虑拥堵时空特征构建区域拥堵评价模型,确定了包含红色预警、橙色预警、黄色预警的三级预警分级标准,定量化地反映区域路网运行状态在一段时期内的综合性评价。结合应用案例分析,结果表明,复合型区域全天运行状态处于中度拥堵等级的累计时长最高,为373 min。双峰型区域在平峰时段路网拥堵状态恢复较快,日均严重拥堵时长仅有36 min。晚延型区域的早晚高峰路网运行状态差异最大,该类地区的日均早高峰拥堵时长最短,而日均晚高峰拥堵时间却最长。并且,由拥堵评价得分显示,该类型地区在工作日及非工作日期间均易出现预警需求。特别是朝阳北路地区,工作日区域拥堵评价得分仅为74. 8分,已达到橙色预警状态,路网运行压力较大,应在缓堵工作中优先作为重点关注对象。

Using the existing monitoring means to carry out regional traffic comprehensive regulation and setting up traffic pre-warning standards scientifically are important goals of easing the traffic congestion in Beijing. In order to evaluate the effect of easing traffic congestion intuitively and identify the area with low performance in time,taking 25 travelling hot spots in Beijing as the research object,the traffic congestion characteristics of the hot spots are analyzed with the help of the regional traffic operation index. By using the system clustering method,it is found that regional diversified congestion characteristics present multiple mode,double peak mode and evening peak prolonged mode in the concerned regions. The operating states of regional road network under different types are analyzed comparatively. On this basis, taking full consideration of the temporal-spatial characteristics of congestion,the regional congestion evaluation model is established,and the 3-level pre-warning criterion including red alert,orange alert and yellow alert isdetermined. In this way,the operational state of regional road network within a certain time period can be evaluated quantitatively. Combining with the application case analysis,the result shows that( 1) The highest cumulative time of the moderate congestion level is in multiple mode region and it is 373 min in whole day.( 2) The road network congestion in the double peak mode region recovered rapidly in the period of off-peak,the daily average cumulative time of serious congestion is just 36 min.( 3) Evening peak prolonged mode regions have the greatest different road operational states in morning peak and evening peak. In these regions,the daily average cumulative time of congestion in morning peak is the shortest,while in evening peak it is the longest. In addition,the score of regional congestion evaluation shows that these regions usually have alert demand during working days and non-working days. Especially in Chaoyang North Road area,the score of regional congestion evaluation is 74. 8 only during working days,which has reached the orange alert state.The road network is under great pressure and should be given priority in the scheme of easing the traffic congestion.