企业财务风险衍化及其产业效应——基于规制环境和竞争环境的双重情境分析

The Derivation and Industrial Effect of Corporate Financial Risk:A Scenario Analysis Based on Regulation and Competition

在"市场机制有效、微观主体有活力、宏观调控有度"的经济体制改革背景下,本文以我国规制环境和竞争环境为场域,分析了企业财务风险衍化的规律及其产业效应。使用"十五计划"至"十二五规划"间中国沪深两市所有A股上市公司数据的实证检验发现:较强的政府规制和产业竞争都会深化单个企业财务风险,且竞争机制强化了规制机制的作用。进一步地,在我国,单个企业财务风险横向衍化在其所在产业中主要发挥了竞争效应;且集中度较高的竞争环境会强化这种竞争效应,而较强规制环境则会削弱之。与之前诸多研究认为政府规制干预了市场和企业效率发挥的观点不同,本文认为政府规制一方面抑制了财务风险在产业中的传染;另一方面能够防止竞争效应的扩大可能带来的"大鱼吃小鱼"的垄断滋生。

This paper taking the regulatory environment and competitive environment as a context,analyzes the pattern of the corporate financial risk derivation and its industrial effect. An empirical research using data from all the A-share listed companies during the period of "10th Five-Year Plan"to"12th Five-Year Plan"found that: Strong regulation and competition will both deepen corporate financial risk,and there is a mutually reinforcing relationship between these two mechanisms. Further,the horizontal derivation of an individual companys financial risk exerts a competitive effect on the whole industry. A highly concentrated competitive environment will strength this competitive effect,and a stronger regulatory environment will weaken it. This paper argues that government regulations,on the one hand,inhibit the contagion of financial risks in the industry;on the other hand,it prevents the monopoly that may be brought about by the expansion of competitive effects.