供给侧改革下影响中国煤炭优质供应的因素分析

Analysis of factors affecting China's coal quality supply under the background of supply side reform

使用精煤可供量衡量煤炭先进供给量,考察了我国优质煤炭供给与科技进步、企业规模和进口冲击之间的相关关系,在VAR模型的基础上,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解手段分析优质供给与三者的动态相关性。实证结果表明:企业规模是短期内影响煤炭行业优质供给水平的重要因素,但中长期影响迅速下降并趋近于0;科技投入短期内会对优质煤炭供给产生大的负冲击,但长期来看影响为正;煤炭进口冲击达到9.8%后,有所下降,并趋于稳定。

Using the available coal to measure the advanced supply of coal,the relationship between high-quality coal supply and technological progress,enterprise scale and import shocks in China was investigated. On the basis of VAR model,the dynamic correlation between high quality supply and the three factors was analyzed by impulse response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that the scale of the enterprise was an important factor affecting the high-quality supply level of the coal industry in the short-term,but the medium-and long-term impact rapidly declined and approached zero. The investment in science and technology would have a large negative impact on the supply of high-quality coal in the short term,but the impact was positive in the short term. After the coal import shock reached 9.8%,it has declined and stabilized.