当前我国信贷风险的多维度分析

A Multidimensional Analysis of China's Credit Risk

信贷市场在我国金融体系中占主导地位,银行信贷风险是我国"化解和防范金融风险"的关键一环。本文从宏观概况、中观非金融企业部门、住户部门和政府部门以及微观重点风险源等角度立体多维度对当前我国银行业信贷风险特点进行了梳理。结果表明,非金融企业部门是当前我国信贷风险和负债压力最严峻的部门,同时需高度重视不同类型企业间的风险明显分化;住户部门杠杆率虽低于发达国家平均水平,但已高于发展中国家平均水平,购房贷款占住户部门贷款近50%比例,受房地产市场波动影响较大;政府部门杠杆率目前低于世界平均水平,总体风险可控,但对近年快速上升势头需引起关注。

The Chinese financial system has been dominated by the credit market, in which the banking sector is the largest and most important. Thus, credit risk in banking sector is quite crucial to prevent and mitigate China’s financial risks. In this paper, we analyze the credit risk of the banking sector from multidimensional aspects, including macroscopic environment, non-financial corporations, household sector, government and microscopic risk factors. Our findings show that the non-financial corporate indebtedness has been currently recognized as the most risky sector due to the accumulation of credit risk and debt pressure. And meanwhile, the risk patterns deviated significantly among firms with different features, which needs to be paid more attention. The leverage of household in China is larger than the average number of emerging countries while it is still below the average of developed countries. The loan for purchasing house accounts for almost 50% of the total amount of household debt and can be largely influenced by the price volatility of real estate market. Although the government leverage is lower than the average value of the other countries and the total risks are manageable and under control, the risks embedded has been rising rapidly in recent years.