中国人口高龄化区域演变态势研究

Research on the Development of Advanced Population Aging in China

随着人类寿命的不断延长,人口高龄化也开始引起关注。基于现有的研究成果,借助最近四次全国人口普(抽)查等数据,以省级行政区为基本研究单元,构建测度指标体系,分析21世纪上半叶中国人口高龄化在地带、大区、省级行政区三个空间层面的区域演变特征,并预测其演变态势。研究发现:(1)2000—2015年,沿海地区与中部、西部地区人口高龄化差距明显,华北、华中、西南、东北局部地区差距缩小,人口高龄化速度在三个空间层面的演变趋势相对一致,其区域空间分布格局相对稳定;(2)人口高龄化由沿海向中部、西部地带蔓延,由华东、华南向华北、东北、华中地区推移式演变态势相对明显,而省级行政区层面则呈现由东南向西北连片集聚演变态势;(3)2020—2050年,中国高龄人口规模将持续扩大,人口高龄化演变速度及增长态势存在地区差异,人口高龄化地区空间分布格局波动明显。总的来看,就人口高龄化类型而言,中国人口高龄化区域空间结构趋于相对均衡,逐步进入超高龄社会阶段。

With the extension of lifespan, advanced population aging begins to draw our eyeballs. Based on existing research and data from the previous four National Population Censuses and the 1% National Population Sample Survey, this paper built an indicator system,analyzed the evolving features of advanced population aging in various regions, sub-regions and provinces of China in the first half of the 21 st century, and then tried to estimate its trends.Relative findings are as follows. First, from 2000 to 2015, a large gap exists among Central China, Western China and its coastal areas in terms of advanced population aging, whereas disparities among North, Central, Southwest and Northeast China is narrowing. However, the pace and trend of advanced population aging is consistent in the three levels of regions, sub-regions and provinces, and its regional distribution is relatively stable. Second, advanced population aging spreads from coastal areas to Central and Western China, and from East and South China to North, Northeast and Central China. As for provincial level, advanced population aging expands from Southeast to Northwest China. Third, the number of the oldest-old will continue to increase from 2020 to 2050.Regional disparities exist in the pace and trend of advanced population aging and regional distribution is unstable. Overall, advanced population aging in China is relatively balanced regionally,and China is gradually entering a phase of overly advanced population aging.