变动中的国际贸易体系:特朗普政府的调整策略及思路

Changing International Trade System: Trump Administration's Strategy and Thinking for Adjustment

二战后的半个多世纪里,美国通过主导自由竞争秩序来维护其经济霸权和实现根本国家利益。这一体系虽在美国的主导下历经两次重大调整,但体系中的内生结构性矛盾日益突出。从"特里芬难题"到国际贸易新规则制定的停滞,再到自由竞争带来的发达国家和发展中国家的利益平衡被打破,美国主导的国际经济体系正不断面临冲击和挑战。特朗普政府直面国际经济体系的这些结构性矛盾,在削减贸易赤字、国际新贸易规则制定和重塑全球价值链等核心问题上有策略、有步骤地进行了深入布局。美国的调整策略不仅给国际经济体系带来重要变化,还将对国际经济竞争格局和中美关系产生深远的影响。

For the more than a half century after World War II,the United States has been maintaining its economic hegemony and realizing fundamental national interests by dominating free competition order. Although this system has undergone two major adjustments under the leadership of the United States,the endogenous structural contradictions in the system have become increasingly prominent. The US-dominated international economic system is constantly facing shocks and challenges,ranged from the Triffin Dilemma to the stagnation of making new rules for international trade,to the discontinuation of the balance of interests between developed and developing countries brought about by free competition. The Trump administration faces up to these structural contradictions in the international economic system and has designed an in-depth layout in a strategic and step-by-step manner on core issues such as reducing trade deficits,writing new rules of international trade,and reshaping global value chain. The US adjustment strategy will not only bring important changes to the international economic system,but also have a profound impact on the pattern of international economic competition and Sino-US relations.