基于逻辑斯蒂模型的主题词被引频次和发文量增长的实证研究

Investigation on Increment of Subject Citation Frequency and Corresponding Quantity of Articles Based on the Logistic Model

【目的/意义】本文将逻辑斯蒂模型引入到主题词被引频次以及相对应的发文量增长规律的研究中,探索主题词被引频次以及相对应的发文量对时间的响应关系。【方法/过程】用Web of Science中所有数据库检索了主题词"chlorophyll fluorescence"以及相对应的发文量,获得了1950-2016年该主题词的被引频次和发文量的数据。然后用逻辑斯蒂模型拟合了该主题词的文献被引频次和发文量。【结果/结论】拟合结果显示,逻辑斯蒂模型可以很好地拟合该主题词文献的被引频次和发文量的增长趋势,且从理论上得出了该主题词的最大年被引频次和最大年发文量将分别达到131 179次和2 385篇。研究结果还表明:该主题词的被引频次和发文量在1982-1983年和1991-1992年拟合值与观测值出现较大的偏差,其原因与这两个时间节点上叶绿素荧光观测技术的重大改进有关。

【Purpose/significance】In this paper, in order to investigate on the increment rule of the subject citation frequency and corresponding quantity of articles, the logistic model was introduced. And the time-response of the subject citation frequency and quantity of articles was studied.【Method/process】The citation data and quantity of articles on the subject of "chlorophyll fluorescence" were obtained from Web of Science database platform from 1950 to 2016 in plant physiology,then these data were fitted by the logistic model.【Result/conclusion】Fitted results showed that the logistic model was able to simulate and predict the increment tendency of the subject citation frequencies and quantity of articles, respectively. It was predicted that the theoretical maximum citations of the subject and total amount of papers issued would be 131 179 per year and 2 385 per year respectively. Additionally, the presented results revealed that the significant differences between the fitted values and the observed data in 1982-1983 and 1991-1992 respectively. The main reasons were that the measured technologies of chlorophyll fluorescence had greatly improved in these two points of time.