面向舆情大数据的突发事件民意系统演化机理与仿真研究

The Evolution Mechanism and Simulation of Internet Public Opinion for Emergent Events Facing Big Data

【目的/意义】面对舆情这一大数据平台,把握网络民意演化规律,为政府突发事件应急决策提供重要依据。【方法/过程】针对突发事件民意演化的研究,采用系统动力学建模方法,分别从内部因素(网民因素)、外部因素两大影响网络民意演化的主要方面进行分析,以突发事件民意热度为指标,探讨突发事件民意演化影响因素及其逻辑关系,并检验其中的关键性因素,同时考虑网民和政府间的博弈与关联性。【结果/结论】通过模拟仿真,得出若干条关于突发事件民意演化机理的规律。

【Purpose/significance】In the face of the big data platform of public opinion,grasping the evolution of public opinion on the Internet provides government a important meaning for emergency decision-making.【Method/process】The research on the evolution of public opinions of emergencies,using the system dynamics model,analyzes the two main aspects that influence the evolution of Internet opinion,one is the internal factors(Internet users),the other is the external factors respectively,taking the popularity of public opinion as an indicator,explores the influential factors and their logical relations of public opinion evolution in emergent events and examines the key factors and at the same time considers the game and correlation between Internet users and the government.【Result/conclusion】Through simulation,we can draw a number of regulations about the evolution mechanism of public opinions for emergencies.