中国近10年来的生育水平与趋势

Recent Levels and Trends of Fertility in China

文章利用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据,通过总和生育率、递进总和生育率、内在总和生育率和队列生育率的估计和对比,分析中国近10年来的生育水平及变化趋势。估计结果表明,10年间总和生育率、递进总和生育率、内在总和生育率的均值分别为1.65、 1.67、1.74。这3个指标逐步消除影响生育率的进度效应,从而使测量结果不断接近实际生育水平。同时,35岁以上队列妇女的累计或终身生育率均高于1.6。文章认为中国近期的生育水平基本处于1.6以上,全面两孩政策又进一步显著提升了生育水平。另外,分孩次结果显示,近年来一孩总和生育率的下降主要反映了妇女婚育年龄推迟的进度效应;二孩总和生育率的上升则很大程度上是全面两孩政策带来的生育堆积效应。

Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper evaluates China’s fertility levels and trends in the decade preceding the survey by adopting and comparing multiple fertility measures, including total fertility rate(TFR), parity progression-based total fertility rate(PPTFR), intrinsic total fertility rate(ITFR) and lifetime fertility rate(LFR). The results show that the average of TFR, PPTFR and ITFR over the past decade in China stands at around 1.65, 1.67 and 1.74 respectively. PPTFR and ITFR provide increasingly better estimations of the actual fertility by controlling the tempo effects in TFR. The lifetime fertility rate of cohort aged 35 and above is over 1.6 and increasing with age. Based on the multiple estimations, our main conclusion is that China’s recent fertility level is above 1.6, and the implementation of the two-child policy has significantly increased the fertility level. Reduction in the TFR for first birth is largely driven by the tempo effect of delayed age at marriage and birth, while the marked increase in the TFR for second birth reflects the birth-bunching effect due to the newly implemented two-child policy.