净进口畜产品贸易的价格效应及市场联动研究

Research on Price Effect of Net Import Live-stock Products Trade and Market Connectivity

基于传统贸易理论及"大国效应",笔者运用2002年～2017年畜产品进口量及价格数据,分析了我国猪肉、牛肉、羊肉3种净进口畜产品进口贸易对国内外市场价格的影响以及国内外畜产品市场价格之间的联动效应。研究结果表明:猪肉、牛肉、羊肉的进口量对其国内市场价格具有显著的单向负效应,影响率分别为-0.24%、-0.41%、-0.08%,其中牛肉影响效应最强;对其国际市场价格具有显著的单向正效应,影响率分别为0.19%、0.06%、0.01%,其中猪肉影响效应最强。国内外市场价格间具有一定的整合性及传导性,从畜产品整合程度、市场间价格传递速度、市场效率来看,猪肉市场最优,其次是羊肉市场,最后是牛肉市场。国内猪肉价格较牛肉、羊肉价格在国际市场上具有较强的影响力。

Based on traditional trade theory and "large country effect",this paper uses import and price data from 2002 to 2017 to analyze the impact of import trade of three varieties of net live-stock products(pork,beef and mutton) on the foreign and domestic market price and the connected effect among foreign and domestic live-stock products market price.The results show that: the imports of pork,beef and mutton have significant single directional negative effect on the domestic market price,and the impact ratio is-0.24%,-0.41% and-0.08%,respectively,in which the impact of beef is the strongest;the imports of pork,beef and mutton have obvious single directional positive effect on the international market price,and the impact ratio is 0.19%,0.06% and0.01%,respectively,in which the impact of pork is the strongest.The foreign and domestic market prices have certain conformability and conductivity,and from the aspect of integration degree of live-stock products,intermarket prices transmission rate and market efficiency,the pork market is the best,mutton market is the secondary and beef market is the last.Domestic pork price has stronger impact on international market than that of beef and mutton price.