中国城市群民生发展水平测度及趋势演进——基于城市DLI的经验考察

The Measurement and Trend Evolution of the Development Level of the People's Livelihood in China's Urban Agglomeration——An Empirical Study Based on the Urban DLI

本文运用熵权法基于经济发展、民生改善、社会发展、生态建设、科技创新五类指标测度了2002～2015年中国八大城市群民生发展水平,然后采用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计、Markov链分析方法实证考察了其民生发展的空间非均衡及趋势演进。研究结论如下:(1)八大城市群民生发展水平呈明显上升趋势,但民生发展的空间非均衡性显著。珠三角城市群区域内差异最大,珠三角与长江中游城市群的区域间差异最大,区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源。(2)除成渝城市群以外,八大城市群整体及其他各城市群内部民生发展的绝对差异呈缩小趋势,但各城市群的民生发展均存在明显的极化现象。(3)在不考虑空间因素作用的条件下,八大城市群整体、长三角和长江中游城市群民生发展的"俱乐部趋同"现象和"马太效应"比较显著,但在2008年之后均有所改善;而京津冀和北部湾城市群民生发展水平自我提升的能力相对较强。(4)考虑空间因素后,由于城市群内部城市之间的空间交互影响和正向溢出效应,民生发展的"俱乐部趋同"现象和"马太效应"有所减弱;但城市群内部各水平城市受邻近城市影响的情况不尽相同,其中珠三角城市群较高民生发展水平城市对其邻域城市的带动作用最强,而长江中游和成渝城市群内部较高水平城市对邻近城市的带动能力相对较弱。

Based on the five indicators of economic development,people’s livelihood improvement,social development,ecological construction,and technological innovation,this paper uses the entropy weight method to measure the development level of people’s livelihood in the eight major urban agglomerations of China from 2002 to 2015. Then the Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation and Markov analysis method are used to empirically investigate the spatial imbalance and trend evolution of people ’s livelihood development. The findings are as follows: First,the development level of the people’s livelihood in the eight major urban agglomerations shows a clear upward trend but has a significant spatial imbalance. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration has the largest regional differences. The interregional difference of the Pearl River Delta and the Triangle of Central China is the largest. And the interregional differences are the main source of overall differences. Second,except for the Chengdu-Chongqing City Group,the absolute differences in the development of people’s livelihood within the eight major urban agglomerations and other single urban agglomerations show a trend of shrinking. However,there are obvious polarization phenomena in the development of people’s livelihood in various urban agglomerations. Third,without considering the role of spatial factors,the development of people’s livelihood in the eight major urban agglomerations,the Yangtze River Delta and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has more obvious "club convergence"phenomenon and "Matthew effect",which are weakened after 2008. The ability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Beibu Gulf urban agglomerations to develop their own people’s livelihood is relatively strong. Forth,after considering the spatial factors,due to the spatial interaction between the cities within the urban agglomeration and the positive spillover effect,the"club convergence"phenomenon and the"Matthew effect"of the people’s livelihood development have weakened. However,the mutual influence of the people’s livelihood between neighboring cities in different urban agglomerations is somewhat different. Among them,the cities with higher levels of people’s livelihood in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration have the strongest driving effects on their neighboring cities,while the higher-level cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and ChengduChongqing urban agglomerations have relatively weaker driving ability to neighboring cities.