中国城镇化的经济增长与收敛双重效应——基于2000与2010年中国1968个县份空间数据检验

County Economic Growth and Convergence Effect of Urbanization in China——Based on Spatial Data of Chinese 1968 Counties in 2000 and 2010

城镇化具有区域增长与收敛的双重效应是一个重要的经验假设,但尚未得到全面检验。本文以2000年与2010年1968个县市空间数据,首次应用普通最小二乘(OLS)回归模型检验了城镇化的双重效应,并用加权地理回归(GWR)模型测算了城镇化水平及城镇化进程对县域人均GDP增长及收敛速度的影响。研究表明,城镇化水平及城镇化进程对我国县域人均GDP增长及收敛性同时具有积极的稳健性作用。计量结果显示,"平均"意义上,城镇化提高了人均GDP的1. 9369%收敛速度,同时,在空间异性影响下,城镇化水平和城镇化进程的人均GDP增长弹性分别为0. 0418和0. 4522。进一步的可视化后发现,城镇化更高地促进西部县域收敛速度,其对西部的增长效应也高于东部与中部。这意味着在"一路一带"背景下,有力推进我国三纵两横的城镇化空间布局,尤其要加快推进西部地区城镇化,将更有效促进我国区域协调发展。

Urbanization has the dual effect of regional growth and convergence,which is an important theoretical hypothesis,but it has been comprehensively tested. Based on the spatial data of 1968 counties in 2000 and 2010,this paper first applied the ordinal least squares( OLS) regression model to verify the dual effect of urbanization,and calculated the influence of urbanization level and urbanization process on the growth and convergence rate of per capita GDP in county area by weighted geographic regression( GWR) model. The research shows that urbanization level and urbanization process have positive effects on the growth and convergence of per capita GDP in China. The results showed that,on the average,urbanization increased the rate of 1. 9369% convergence of per capita GDP. At the same time,under the influence of spatial heterosexual,the per capita GDP growth elasticity of urbanization level and urbanization process was 0. 0418 and 0. 4522 respectively. After further visualization,we find that urbanization speeds up the speed of convergence in western counties,and the growth rate of per capita GDP is higher in the West than in the eastern and central parts. This means that in the context of the"one road",it will push forward the spatial layout of the urbanization of the three longitudinal and two horizontal sections,especially to accelerate the urbanization of the western region,which will more effectively promote the coordinated development of China’s region.