投资导向、东道国金融生态与中国对外投资效率——基于对“一带一路”沿线国家的研究

Investment Orientation, Host Country's Financial Ecology and China's Foreign Investment Efficiency: An Analysis Based on the Study of the Countries along the Belt and Road

文章通过构建东道国金融生态评价体系及随机前沿引力模型,考察了2007～2016年中国在"一带一路"区域的投资导向及效率变化情况。结果表明,中国在该地区的对外直接投资(OFDI)以资源导向型为主,市场导向显著于国际关系导向。而OFDI在该区域存在效率损失,东道国经济、政治及信用环境的改善使其面临更多的市场竞争,对OFDI效率的负向作用显著大于金融环境对OFDI效率的正向作用。结合脱钩指数的分析来看,当OFDI与该地区经济的关联程度越高,效率水平也就越高。而中国在资源丰富、市场购买力强,国际关系友好的国家中的OFDI效率更高。因此,在政治互信的基础上,加强与市场、资源等导向特征明显的国家开展经济合作,将有利于提升中国的OFDI效率。

By developing the host country's financial ecology evaluation system and using the tochastic frontier gravity model,this paper investigates the investment orientation and China's OFDI efficiency in the Belt and Road from 2007 to 2016.The results show that China's OFDI is mainly resource -oriented in this region,and is more significantly market -oriented than international relations -oriented.OFDI suffers efficiency losses in the region,the improvement of the host country's economic,political and credit environments will make OFDI face more market competition,and its negative effect on OFDI efficiency is significantly greater than the positive effect of the financial environment on OFDI efficiency.In light of the decoupling index analysis,the closer relationship between China's OFDI and the economy in this region,the higher the level of the efficiency.OFDI is more efficient in a country with abundant resources,strong market purchasing power and friendly international relations.Therefore,on the basis of political mutual trust,strengthening economic cooperation with countries with abundant resources and market potential is helpful to improve OFDI efficiency in China.