京津冀协同发展的产业流动与政策模拟——从投入产出视角出发

Industrial Flow and Policy Simulation in the Coordinated Development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei——Based on Input-output Model

科学规划京津冀三地间产业流动既是"非首都功能"疏解的基础,也是京津冀协同发展的重要环节。本文基于投入产出方法,对京津冀三地产业结构进行全面的分析,探讨了地区产业短板,并结合碳排放与水消耗两个指标,对适合疏解的产业提出建议。在文章假设下,对北京待疏解产业产出向河北地区流动进行模拟,通过投入产出规划调整模型与地区间投入产出模型测算,得出政府应加强省际价值流动、进口两手抓的结论。

Planning industrial flows among Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is the basis for the relocation of "non-capital functions"and an important part of the coordinated development of thedistrict.Based on the.input-output method,this article makes a comprehensive analysis of the industrial structure of the three regions and discusses the shortcomings of the regional industry.Combining the carbon emission and water consumption,recommendations for industries that are suitable for relocating were proposed.The flow of industrial output from Beijing to Hebei was simulated.Through the input-output planning adjustment model and the Inter-Region input-output model,it is concluded that the government should strengthen the inter-provincial value flow and import simultaneously.