基于信息可替代的有色金属产业安全指标体系构建与评估

Construction and Evaluation of Non-ferrous Metal Industry Safety Index System Based on Information Substitutable

根据我国有色金属产业的特点提出了适用于评价我国有色金属产业安全的指标体系,并从信息可替代的视角对指标体系进行了修正。根据修正后的指标体系对我国2001～2015年间的有色金属产业安全状况进行了评估。研究发现:(1)利润率、产业国际竞争指数、市场增长率、研发投入强度、对外依存度、国内资本份额是评价我国有色金属产业安全的核心指标;(2)我国有色金属产业安全从"十五"到"十二五"处在不安全的状态,研发投入强度常年偏低,进口对外依存度一直过高是造成这种状况的主要原因;(3)利润率、市场增长率和出口对外依存度是主导我国2001～2015年有色金属产业安全度变化的因素。

On the basis of reviewing the previous theory of industrial safety,this paper puts forward an index system for evaluating the safety of non-ferrous metal industry in China based on the characteristics of non-ferrous metal industry in our country,and revising the index system from the perspective of information substitution.Based on the revised index system,the article evaluates the safety situation of nonferrous metals industry in China in 2001~2015.Results show that:(1)profit rate,industrial international competition index,market growth rate,R & D input intensity,foreign dependence degree,domestic capital share are the key indexes to evaluate the safety of non-ferrous metal industry in China;(2)Chinese non-ferrous metal industry safety is in the unsafe state from 2001~2015;(3)profit rate,market growth rate and external dependence on exports are the main driving factors leading to the change of Chinese non-ferrous metal industry’s safety degree in the past 2001~2015 years.