教育扩张是否影响了教育收益率——基于中国城镇数据的HLM分析

Does Education Expansion Affect the Returns to Education?——A Data Analysis in HLM Based on the Evidence from Urban China

教育扩张在近几十年来成为一种全球性的趋势,针对发达国家的研究已经注意到这种扩张对教育收益率的负面影响,但对一些发展中国家的研究却得出了相反的结论。针对中国的分析表明:既不同于发达国家,也不同于经济发展水平相对滞后的发展中国家,中国教育扩张对教育收益率既没有表现出积极的影响,也没有表现出消极的影响。对市场转型国家而言,随着市场的成熟和经济发展水平的提升,教育扩张对教育收益率的影响将经历"上升—没有显著影响—下降"三个阶段。与发达国家和一些发展中国家相比,中国目前正处在这三个阶段的中间阶段。这一研究结论同时也预示,随着市场经济的成熟和经济的进一步发展,持续和过度的教育扩张在中国也可能会导致教育收益率的下降。

Educational expansion has become a global trend over the past decades,and its negative impact on thereturns to education has been found in developed countries. However,an opposite conclusion is drawn in some developingcountries. An analysis of China indicates that different from what has been found in developed countries and somedeveloping countries,education expansion in China has neither a positive impact nor a negative impact on the returns toeducation. As far as the countries in the period of market transition are concerned,with the maturity of the market and thegrowth of economy,the impact of education expansion on the returns to education will pass three periods:the risingperiod,the period of no significant impact,and the falling period. Compared with developed countries and somedeveloping countries,China is now in the middle period. This indicates that with the maturity of the market economy andthe growth of economy,continuous and excessive education expansion in China is likely to result in a decrease in thereturns to education.