应用传染病模型估计校园急性出血性结膜炎暴发的最终规模

Application of Infectious Disease Model to Estimate the Final Size of Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis Outbreak in Campus

个体差异性会导致疾病传播的时空异质性,人群卫生习惯差异性影响着疾病传播的基本再生数与最终规模.以2011年长沙市某校急性出血性结膜炎(AHC)暴发疫情为例,将人群分为卫生习惯较好(N_1)与卫生习惯较差(N_2)两组,运用分组动力学模型评估急性出血性结膜炎暴发疫情中的基本再生数与最终规模.研究发现,基本再生数与最终规模随着N_1比例的增大而减小;较好卫生习惯人群中以δ比例降低了传染性.当两组人数比例为10:1δ=0.1时,最终规模降低了84%;而当δ>0.5时,此时已经没有明显变化.

The difference of individual health habits among different groups will lead to the spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The difference in health habits affect the basic reproduction number and the final size. An outbreak of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis(AHC) in Changsha in 2011 was studied as an example to assess the effect of improved health habit on the basic reproduction number and the final size. We divide school population into two groups:good health habits(N1) and poor health habits(N2). When the proportion of increases, the basic reproduction number and the final size will decrease;and the population of the good health habits(Ni) reduces the infectivity by a fraction δ. When N1 : N2 = 10, and δ = 0.1,the final size will be reduced by compared with the δ = 1(the case when everyone has poor health habits). The change is very small for δ > 0.5.