城市便利性与城市集聚发展:基于联立方程模型的实证分析

Urban Amenities and Urban Agglomeration Development:a Simulation Equations Model Approach

通过联立方程模型3SLS方法,对土地财政背景下,城市便利性影响城市集聚发展的机制和传导路径进行了实证检验.研究结果表明:1)城市便利性通过促进人口集聚和产业集聚来推动城市集聚发展.城市便利性整体水平提高一个标准单位,城市人口集聚程度上升0.25个百分点,产业集聚程度相应地上升0.148个百分点.2)在城市便利性促进城市集聚发展过程中,人口集聚与产业集聚存在正向的循环因果累积关系,人口集聚吸引了更多的产业集聚,产业集聚水平的提高又进一步促进了人口集聚.3)城市便利性的集聚效应受到土地财政的制约.地方政府对土地财政的依赖程度越高,城市便利性的集聚效应越小.

Using a Simultaneous Equations Model(SEM) and 3 SLS estimation method,this paper empirically examines how urban amenities influences urban agglomeration development in 288 cities in China. It is found that. 1) Urban amenities stimulates urban development by promoting the agglomeration of both population and industries. An increase of one standard unit of urban amenities is associated with an increase of 0.25 percent of population agglomeration and 0.148 percent of industrial agglomeration. 2) There is a cumulative causation of population agglomeration and industrial agglomeration. An increase of the extent of population agglomeration attracts more industries which in turn attracts more population. 3) The agglomeration effect of urban amenities is alleviated by land finance.The higher the dependence of local government on local finance, the smaller the effect of urban amenities on urban agglomeration development.