NASA风洞测试需求预测方法评述

Review on the NASA Wind Tunnel Testing Needs Forecasting Methods

近20年来,美国航空工业界十分关注美国国家航空航天局(NASA)应该维持怎样的风洞群。按照时间顺序对相关讨论的研究梳理出三种测试需求的预测方法。基于用户需求调查的需求预测方法最为直接,但是其客观性和准确性容易受到受访对象自身立场和经验水平的制约;基于模拟仿真的预测方法有望将不确定性因素纳入考虑,得到比平均值更有意义的区间估计;基于功能替代的预测方法实现了功能与需求的对接,有利于统筹和调度风洞的使用。后两种预测方法都需要扎实的统计数据基础。

In the last two decades,U.S.aeronautical industry was concerned about what a wind tunnel cluster NASA should maintain.This paper sequentially studied the relevant discussions,and reviewed three testing needs forecasting methods.The method based on user polls is straightforward,but its objectivity and accuracy is prone to be limited by interviewee's position and experience.The method based on simulation can take into some uncertainties, and the interval estimation it provides is usually more meaningful than a mere average.The method based on function substitution provides a link between function and need,which is advantageous for usage planning and scheduling. The latter two methods require concrete usage statistics.