2005-2013年中国女性乳腺癌发病及死亡趋势分析

Analysis of the incidence and mortality trend of breast cancer in Chinese women from 2005 to 2013

目的分析《中国肿瘤登记年报》中2005-2013年女性乳腺癌发病率与死亡率的变化趋势,为开展乳腺癌防治提供参考。方法提取2005-2013年中国女性乳腺癌发病率与死亡率的全部记录;运用Joinpoint回归模型分析中国女性乳腺癌发病率与死亡率的变化趋势。结果2005-2013年我国城市女性乳腺癌发病率水平高于农村,城市发病率变化趋势平稳(t=-0. 2,P=0. 828),农村发病率呈现上升趋势(t=7. 8,P <0. 001);城市和农村发病率高峰分别为50～岁、45～岁年龄组。2005-2013年我国城市女性乳腺癌死亡率水平高于农村,城市死亡率变化趋势平稳(t=0. 8,P=0. 458),农村死亡率上升趋势明显(t=3. 3,P=0. 014);城市女性死亡率在30岁之后开始上升,75岁之后加速上升,农村女性死亡率在30岁之后开始上升,55～69岁变化趋于平稳,70岁后又开始上升。结论 2005-2013年我国城市女性乳腺癌发病率及死亡率均高于农村女性,农村女性乳腺癌发病率与死亡率上升趋势明显,应积极制定并完善乳腺癌防治措施。

Objective To Analyze the change trend of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chinese women from 2005 to 2013 in the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report in order to provide references for the implement of the prophylaxis and treatment of breast cancer. Methods Extracted all the records of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chinese women from 2005 to 2013,applied the Joinpoint regression model to analyze the change trend of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chinese women. Results The incidence levels of breast cancer among urban women in China was higher than that in rural from 2005 to 2013,the change trend of urban incidence was stable( t =-0. 2,P = 0. 828),the rural incidence showed an increasing trend( t = 7. 8,P < 0. 001). The peaks of urban and rural incidence were in the age group of 50-and the age group of 45-respectively. The mortality of breast cancer among urban women in China was higher than that in rural from 2005 to 2013,the change trend of urban mortality was stable( t = 0. 8,P = 0. 458),and the rising trend of rural mortality was obvious( t = 3. 3,P = 0. 014). The mortality of urban women began to rise after the age of 30,accelerating to rise after the age of 75,the mortality of rural women began to rise after the age of 30,the change tended to be stable at the age of 55-69,and began to rise after the age of 70 again. Conclusions The incidence and mortality of breast cancer among urban women in China were all higher than that in rural from 2005 to 2013,the rising trend of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer among rural women was obvious,so the prophylaxis and treatment measures of breast cancer should be actively formulated and perfected.