分部门去杠杆与宏观经济波动——基于预期与货币政策有效性视角

Divisional Deleveraging and Economic Volatility: From the Perspective of Expectation and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

在目前经济下行的压力下,我国正在进行分部门去杠杆——非金融企业在去杠杆,而家庭部门的杠杆率却在平稳增加。那么,分部门去杠杆会对宏观经济产生怎样的影响呢?为了回答这个问题,本文通过构建切合上述特征的、包含异质性家庭部门和非金融企业部门的一般竞争均衡模型,同时讨论家庭和企业部门去杠杆对宏观经济的影响。最后通过数值模拟,得到如下结论:(1)在经济下行时,去杠杆会造成较大的经济波动;(2)企业和家庭部门同时去杠杆,相比单独某一部门去杠杆带来的经济波动更小。以上结论为解决去杠杆与平稳经济的矛盾提供了新的角度。

Currently,China is facing great downturn pressure and is experiencing divisional deleveraging.Specifically, the leverage in non-financial corporation sector is decreasing while that in household sector grows steadily.Then a question arises:what consequences divisional deleveraging may have on the economic stability?To answer it,we build a general equilibrium model which features the above facts and allows us to consider the distinct effects of deleveraging in different sectors.The simulation results show that:1)deleveraging during economic downturn causes greater fluctuation;2)simultaneous deleveraging in both sectors is better than divisional deleveraging in terms of stabilizing the economy.