货币政策、管理者心理偏差与银行风险承担

Monetary Policy, Managerial Psychological Bias and Bank Risk-taking

本文基于我国16家上市银行2008—2017年上半年季度数据,采用2sls估计方法提出并检验了中国货币政策影响银行风险承担的"管理者心理偏差的中介效应渠道"。研究表明:宽松的货币政策会诱发或强化银行管理者过度自信的心理偏差;由货币政策影响的管理者心理偏差会显著影响银行风险承担,即在货币政策影响银行风险承担行为过程中,存在着"管理者心理偏差的中介效应渠道"。因此,央行在制定货币政策时要兼顾银行管理者心理波动影响,提升货币政策传导渠道效率,防范系统性金融风险。

Based on the quarterly data of 16 listed Banks in China from 2008 to 2017,the paper has proposed and proved the "intermediate channel of managerial psychological bias"with 2sls estimates method.The results show loose monetary policy can induce or reinforce managerial psychological bias of overconfidence in banks.The managerial psychological bias affected by monetary policy can significantly affect bank risk-taking.In other words,there is the "intermediate channel of managerial psychological bias"in monetary policy's risk-taking.Therefore,central bank should pay more attention to the influence of bank managerial psychological fluctuation,improve the efficiency of monetary transmission channel,and prevent systematic financial risks.