中国货币政策进入了“流动性陷阱”吗——基于预期与货币政策有效性视角

Has China's Monetary Policy Really Entered a “Liquidity Trap”——Based on the Perspective of Expectation and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

2018年央行多次通过降准、MFL投放与逆回购等货币工具放松银根,实施较为宽松的货币政策,但宏观上却表现出投资下滑、消费乏力与出口增长疲软等经济下行的状况。中国货币政策真的进入了"流动性陷阱"吗?为回答上述问题,本文将预期因素引入新凯恩斯动态均衡模型,设定泰勒规则银行目标反应函数,建立宽松与紧缩的货币政策的两区制状态,选取2011年1月—2018年9月的月度金融数据,运用MS-VAR计量方法定量分析货币政策有效性影响因素与影响程度。研究发现,我国货币政策确实存在"流动性陷阱"特点,消费预期、投资预期与国际预期对货币政策有效性具有显著影响。在经济下行状态中,宽松和紧缩的货币政策环境下,各类预期的货币效应表现出显著差异。在"流动性陷阱"下可以通过结构性货币政策刺激投资预期,加强对小微企业的支持力度,降低社会融资成本,提高货币政策的针对性与有效性。

In 2018, the central bank has repeatedly eased monetary policy through monetary tools such as RRR reduction,MFL investment and reverse repurchase, etc., but the result is that the economy is in a downturn, such as declining investment, weak consumption and weak export growth. Has China’s monetary policy really entered a "liquidity trap" ? In order to answer the above questions, this paper introduces the expected factors into the New-Keynesian dynamic equilibrium model, sets up the Taylor rule bank’s objective response function, and theoretically gives new significance to the mechanism of "liquidity trap". Meanwhile, two regimes of loose and tight monetary policies were established.Monthly financial data from Jan 2011 to Sep 2018 were selected to analyze the dynamic relationship between endogenous variables in different states by using MS-VAR measurement method, and the influencing factors and degree of the effectiveness of monetary policies were quantitatively analyzed. It was found that China’s monetary policy had the characteristics of "liquidity trap", and consumption expectation, investment expectation and international expectation have a significant impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy. Further research shows that in the economic downturn, the impact of loose monetary policy on consumption expectation and international expectation is very limited, but it can affect investment expectation through targeted monetary policy. However, tight monetary policy has a long-term monetary effect on consumption expectation, but it does not have a long-term monetary effect on investment expectation. This paper shows that under the "liquidity trap", we can stimulate investment expectations through structural monetary policies, strengthen support for small and micro enterprises and other key national economic fields, reduce social financing costs, expand financing channels, and improve the pertinence and effectiveness of monetary policies.