房价粘性、系统性风险与货币政策调控

House Prices “stickiness”, Systemic Risks and Monetary Policy Regulation

针对当前房价过高的问题,我国政府推出了新一轮房地产市场调控措施,但房地产市场却表现出高价格粘性,房价下行困难,增大了我国系统性金融风险,威胁着金融与宏观经济稳定。本文构建了纳入房地产部门的DSGE模型,内生化系统性金融风险,探讨了在不同的房价粘性下,经济金融变量对不同外生冲击的动态响应结果。得出结论:技术进步会通过提高投资回报的方式提高房价、降低系统性金融风险;房价下降冲击与金融部门冲击会促使风险溢价和金融风险提升;紧缩的货币政策冲击能够有效降低房价、缓解宏观经济波动。此外,不同的房价粘性会对经济金融变量对外生冲击的响应程度产生影响,高房价粘性会降低变量偏离稳态的幅度,使货币政策的房地产价格传导机制失效。本研究为我国调控房地产市场和防范系统性金融风险,维护金融安全和宏观经济稳定提供重要的政策启示。

This paper constructs the endogenous DSGE model which includes the real estate department, in addition,this paper also examines the impact of exogenous shock financial variables includes leverage and macroeconomic variables under different real estate price stickiness. The results show that technical shocks and monetary policy shocks will lead to a negative and positive response to the systemic financial risks respectively, while macroeconomic variables respond positively to the impact of technology, with most negative responses under monetary policy shocks.Moreover, there are differences in the degree of response between financial variables and macroeconomic variables to exogenous-shocks at different real estate price stickiness, variables normally deviate smaller from the steady state under high price stickiness. The paper reaches policy which has a significant policy revelation on effective implement of monetary policy and a new round of real estate market’s regulations.