新农合如何影响农村中老年人口劳动供给——基于动态随机模型的分析

How New Rural Cooperative Medical System Affect Labor Supply of Middle-Aged and Elderly Population in Rural Areas: Based on Analysis of Dynamic Stochastic Model

文章基于2011年和2013年的CHARLS调查数据,利用动态随机模型和计算机模拟方法研究新农合对中国农村中老年人口劳动参与决策的影响。研究结果发现,新农合能够有效促进农村中老年人口劳动时间的供给,并且这种影响效应存在"年龄门槛",尤其是针对57岁以上人口的影响尤为明显;同时,新农合的健康效应会增加农村中老年人口的劳动时间,而经济效应则减少相应的劳动时间供给,这两种影响效应相互抵消,共同影响农村中老年人口的劳动参与决策。在对新农合政策细则变化的模拟情境下,发现报销比例的提高会显著降低"年龄门槛"、增加个体劳动时间以及提高劳动参与率,但取消起付线和封顶线的影响作用相对不明显。因此,要积极完善新农合以缓解农村劳动力不足问题,从而推动实现全面建成小康社会。

Based on the CHARLS survey data of 2011 and 2013, the paper uses dynamic stochastic model and computer simulation method to study the influence of NRCMS on the labor participation of middle-aged and elderly populations in rural China. The results show that the MRCMS can effectively promote the supply of labor time for the middleaged and elderly groups in rural areas, and this effect has a "age threshold", especially for the population over 57 years old. At the same time, the health effect will increase their labor time, and then the economic effec will reduce the corresponding supply of labor time. Furthermore, the two effects cancel each other, and jointly affect the labor participation decision-making of the rural middle-aged and elderly people. In the simulated situations of changes in the policy rules, it is found that the increase of reimbursement rates will significantly reduce the "age threshold", increase the labor time and improve the labor participation rate, but the effect of the cancellation of the starting line and the top line is not obvious. Therefore, we should actively improve the NRCMS to alleviate the shortage of rural labor, so as to promote the realization of a well-off society in an all-round way.