基于多场景的商业园区源-储-荷系统运营模式及投资决策研究

Multi-scenarios based operation mode and investment decision of source-storage-load system in business park

含源-储-荷系统的智能化商业园区是我国能源互联网建设的重要方向之一。开展商业园区源-储-荷系统的运营模式及投资决策研究。从投资和运营2个角度分析不同利益主体的权责关系,提出源-储-荷系统的商业运营模式;在此基础上,基于分布式能源全寿命周期的经济性理论,分别建立源-荷、储-荷、源-储-荷3种应用场景下能源投资商和园区开发商的盈利模型;结合商业园区的电价政策,通过敏感性分析给出分布式光伏/储能投资商提升投资回报水平的建议。仿真结果表明,分布式光伏投资商在商业园区具有较高的投资回报率,而储能投资商盈亏平衡的实现有待于储能成本的下降,其降幅要求在源-储-荷应用场景下较为苛刻。

The development of intelligent business park containing source-storage-load system is one of the important directions for China’s energy internet construction. So,the operation mode and investment decision of source-storageload system in the business park are studied. The authority-responsibility relationships among different stakeholders are analyzed from two aspects of investment and operation,and the commercial operation mode of the source-storageload system is proposed. Then,based on the life cycle theory of distributed energy,the revenue models of energy investors and park developers are established under three application scenarios of source-load,storage-load and sourceenergy-load respectively. Considering the electricity price policy of the business park,recommendations are put forward for distributed photovoltaic and energy storage investors to improve the return of investment based on the sensitivity analysis. Simulative results show that the distributed photovoltaic investors have a higher return on investment,while the realization of break-even of the energy storage investors depends on the cost reduction of energy storage,and the cost drop requirement is very strict in the source-energy-load application scenario.