安徽省能源消费增长影响因素的计量分析

Quantitative Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption Growth in Anhui Province

安徽近几年发展迅速,但几乎每年的能源生产量均小于消费量,为此需要寻找到降低能源消费的策略。基于所选定的11个指标,通过逐步回归筛选变量建立计量模型,模型通过各项检验,实证分析了安徽省能源消费与各个影响因素之间的数量关系。之后,在计量模型建立的基础上,对各个变量做通径分析,分析各个解释变量对能源消费的直接作用和间接作用。最后,结合上述分析,提出安徽省要在提高能源使用效率和调整产业结构上来降低能源消费。

Anhui Province has been developing rapidly in recent years.However,nearly every year,its energy production is less than its energy consumption.Therefore,it is necessary to find a way to reduce the energy consumption in Anhui Province.Based on the selected 11 indicators,the variables are chosen through stepwise regression and the regression model is thus established,which went through various tests.The quantitative relationship between energy consumption and various factors was analyzed empirically.Then,on the basis of the regression model,the path analysis is made for each variable to analyze the direct and indirect effects of each explanatory variable on energy consumption.Finally,based on the above analysis,this survey proposes that Anhui Province should improve the efficiency of energy use and adjust industrial structure to reduce energy consumption.