绿色建筑项目风险协同治理的演化博弈研究

Evolutionary Game Study on Cooperative Risk Management for Green Building Projects

绿色建筑比一般建筑面临着更多的风险,在推广绿色建筑的建筑行业大背景下,如何高效并合理地对绿色建筑项目的风险进行治理,对绿色建筑项目的成功普及和长远发展起到决定性的作用。采用复杂网络分析的方法,验证了绿色建筑项目参与者之间的风险具有很强的关联性,进而提出绿色建筑项目风险协同治理的思路;运用演化博弈理论对业主和承包商两大绿色建筑项目参与主体的协同行为进行了演化博弈分析,构建了绿色建筑项目风险协同治理的策略选择动态行为模型,找到了具有稳定性的演化博弈均衡解,并得出保证博弈双方同时采取协同风险治理策略的必要条件,根据演化博弈分析结果,提出了促进绿色建筑项目风险协同治理的方法及策略。

Green building faces more risks than ordinary buildings.In the context of the construction industry that promotes green buildings,how to efficiently and reasonably manage the risks of green building projects?It plays a decisive role in the successful popularization and long-term development of green construction projects.By means of complex network analysis,this paper verifies that the risks of green building project participants have strong correlation,and then puts forward the idea of collaborative risk management of green building project.Using evolutionary game theory,this paper analyzes the cooperative behavior of the two major green building project participants,constructs the dynamic behavior model of the strategy choice of the cooperative risk management of the green building project,and finds the equilibrium solution of the evolutionary game with stability.Finally, according to the result of evolutionary game analysis,the author puts forward the method and strategy to promote the cooperative management of risk of green building project.