国际货币制度变迁的系统相容性分析

The Compatibility Analysis on the Evolution of International Monetary System

从系统相容性的角度分析国际货币制度变迁的百年历史 ,为关于国际货币制度的探讨提供了一个新的视角和平台。迄今为止的国际货币制度采取的形式都位于相容性模型的解集中。当系统的不相容性累计到一定程度之后 ,系统均衡被打破 ,货币金融危机频仍 ,新的系统则应运而生。实物本位终将为信用本位所取代 ,货币本位的虚拟化不可避免。全球化背景下浮动汇率制将以货币联盟的形式向固定汇率制复归。

The compatibility analysis provides a brand-new perspective for the research of the evolution of international monetary system. When the compatibility of a system is impaired, the equilibrium of the system will be broken, and financial crisis will break out. The physical standard will absolutely be replaced by the credit standard, and the virtualization of currency standard is inevitable. In the background of globalization, the float exchange rate system will return to the fixed one, in the form of currency unions. The ultimate direction of the evolution of international monetary system is the formation of the global single currency.