通货膨胀和紧缩下经济政策乘数作用的对比

Comparison on the Economic Policy Multiplier under Inflation and Deflation

在通货膨胀和通货紧缩环境下 ,宏观经济政策具有不同的作用效果。新凯恩斯经济学认为 ,在通货紧缩环境下 ,由于价格粘性和调整成本等原因 ,将导致经济政策乘数作用更为显著。但是我们通过模型检验发现 ,在我国经济运行的不同价格变化阶段 ,这种新凯恩斯经济学的政策命题并不成立。在通货紧缩环境下 ,财政政策和货币政策乘数均出现了明显降低 ,其原因是有效需求不足 ,导致政府投资乘数作用下降和货币政策实际作用减弱。

Under the environment of inflation or deflation,the macroeconomic policies will have different effects . New Keynesian economics holds that economic policy has higher multiplier under deflation due to price stickiness and cost adjustment. By model testing we find this view is invalid for China's economic situations. Under deflation, fiscal policy and monetary policy's multipliers are significantly lower than before. This is caused by the function decrease in investment multiplier and money's real effects.