全球大系统关联结构与金融波动的国际传播

The Link Structure in the Global Large-scale System and the International Propagation of Financial Fragility

本文首先指出随着全球经济金融一体化的迅速发展 ,各国经济系统从最初的孤立分散系统整合为在子系统间存在强耦合作用的世界经济大系统 ,因此必须站在全球大系统的高度来研究金融波动的国际传播机制。然后建立了由三个国家组成的经济金融联接模型。该模型所描述的经济系统为双时标系统 ,它着眼于系统内部反馈结构 ,分析市场之间以金融联接渠道为主导的多种联接渠道实现的正负反馈机制在金融危机的起源、传播、爆发到趋稳的演变过程中的作用。对模型分析和计算机仿真结果分析表明全球一体化时代世界金融体系脆弱性的加剧根源于世界经济系统中各子系统关联结构的本质性变迁 ,而金融联接机制的主导地位是促成这种结构性变化的关键因素。

This paper firstly points out that along with the rapid progress of the global economic-financial integration, the country economic system have being evolving into the world economic large-scale system with strong coupling among the subsystems from the initial isolated disperse systems. Therefore the international propagation of financial volatility should be researched based on the global large-scale system. Whereafter we establish an economic-financial link model of three countries, which is a double time-scale system. With an eye to the feedback structure in the system, the effects of several link channels among which the financial one is the leading one on the origin, propagation, eruption and stabilization of the financial crises are analyzed. Finally the analysis on the model and computer simulation shows that the fragility of financial system in the age of the global integration roots in the essential changes happening to the link structure among the subsystems of the world economic large-scale system. And the financial link mechanism has been critical to the structural changes.