运用移动平均比率法预测门诊人数

A Prediction of Outpatient Number with Moving Average Method

目的 建立一个简便模型公式预测医院门诊人数。方法 用季节预测法中的移动平均比率法计算趋势值与调整月指数 ,最后应用模型。结果 依据 1997— 2 0 0 0年门诊人数预测出 2 0 0 1年各月的门诊人数。结论 该方法简便易行 ,预测效果好 ,能为医院管理人员计划决策提供一个重要依据。

Objective To establish a simple model to predict hospital outpatient number. Methods The trend values were calculated and the monthly indexes were adjusted with moving average method of season prediction method, and then the model was applied. Results Outpatient numbers of each month in 2001 were predicted according to those from 1997 to 2000. Conclusion This method was simple and easy to be operated, it could provide a basis for planning and making policy.