二氧化碳浓度增加对冬小麦生长发育影响的数值模拟

NUMERICAL SIMULATION STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING CO_2 CONCENTRATION ON WINTER WHEAT

根据国内外小麦生长模拟研究成果,借鉴荷兰学者的模拟思路,从作物生长的主要生理过程人手,综合考虑气候变暖与大气中CO2浓度增加等因素对作物生长发育和产量形成的影响,修正了在一级生产水平下冬小麦生长模拟模式,使得模式能够对CO2浓度的变化做出相应的反应。经资料检验,在当前CO2浓度下,冬小麦总干重和穗干重的模拟平均相对误差小于10％,其它器官干重及叶面积指数的模拟也取得了较好的结果。运用改进后的模式模拟试验了未来气候变暖和CO2倍增对冬小麦生长发育的可能影响。

The adaptation of a winter wheat simulation model to deal with the impacts of increasing CO2 concentration and climate change is described in this paper. The model was validated for the present climatic conditions. The mean relative error of simulation is lower than 10 % for the weight of total dry matter and the spike weight at the end of growing period. The simulated values of other organ's weight as well as leaf area index are also well fitted with the observed. Finally, by this modified model the possible effects of increasing CO2 concentration and climate change on winter wheat are estimated. The results show that the rising temperature and increasing CO2 concentration both have positive impacts on winter wheat in Gucheng of Hebei Province and they promote each other for positive impacts.