浮动汇率制度下货币政策的独立性

蒙代尔——弗莱明模型认为,固定汇率制下,一国货币政策不影响产出,只影响储备水平的变化;浮动汇率制下,一国货币政策能够有效地影响产出。克鲁格曼则提出了开放经济下货币政策的独立性、汇率完全稳定与资本自由流动三者不可兼得的“三元冲突”。迄今为止,国内外相当部分学者均接受浮动汇率制下货币政策有独立性的基本命题。本文首先论证了在开放经济中,由于货币替代的存在,在浮动汇率制下一国货币政策必将缺乏独立性;其次,说明了在中国金融渐进开放的背景下,货币替代的存在、中国外币实际余额的初始存量与外币需求弹性的增大,将使得中国货币政策的独立性大大地减弱。

According to Mundell-Fleming Model, under fixed exchange rate system, monetary policy has no influence on output, it can only affect the level of foreign exchange level under floating exchange rate system, monetary policy can influence output. Krugman proposes that in an open economy the independence of monetary policy, the stability of exchange rate, and the free flow of capital can not be achieved simultaneously. The majority of scholars at home and abroad agree the under the floating exchange rate system monetary policy enjoys independence. This paper first demonstrates that in an open economy monetary policy will lack independence due to the existence of currency substitution: then illuminates on the background that China's finance areas will be opened gradually, the existence of currency substitution, the accumulating of the initial stock of foreign exchange and the increase of the elasticity of demand for foreign currency will greatly weaken the independence of China's monetary policy.