泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的检验

Taylor Rule and Its Empirical Test in China's Monetary Policy

本文运用历史分析法和反应函数法首次将中国货币政策运用于检验泰勒规则。通过计算中国货币政策中利率的泰勒规则值 ,并与其实际值进行比较表明 ,泰勒规则可以很好地衡量中国货币政策 ,利率规则值与实际值的偏离之处恰恰是政策操作滞后于经济形势发展之时。这表明泰勒规则能够为中国货币政策提供一个参照尺度 ,衡量货币政策的松紧。对中国货币政策的反应函数GMM估计表明 ,通胀率对利率的调整系数小于 1 ,这是一种不稳定的货币政策规则 ,在这一制度下 ,通货膨胀或通货紧缩的产生和发展有着自我实现机制。

This paper employs the historical analysis and the reaction function method to conduct an empirical analysis of China's monetary policy in the framework of Taylor rule.By comparing the rule value with the actual value of the interest rate,we show that Taylor rule can provide a benchmark for measuring the stance of China's monetary policy.The actual value deviates from rule value when the policy operation lags behind the request of the development of economic situation.In such an unstable monetary policy regime,the generation and devleopment of inflation or deflation is of a self-fulfilling mechanism.China's monetary policy should be transformed from an unstable rule to a stable one.We should actively carry interest rate reform forward and set up the monetary policy regime with the interest rate of money market as the intermediate target.