货币政策无效性命题在中国的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Monetary Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition in China

本文采用两步OLS方法考察了中国货币政策对实际产出的影响 ,实证结果倾向于拒绝政策无效性命题 (PIP)。实证研究表明预期到的与未预期到的货币都影响产出 ,货币政策对产出在 1 0 %的显著水平上存在非对称性影响。笔者认为在中国预期到的货币政策影响产出 ,其原因是不完全的市场与价格刚性的存在。

By using two-step OLS method,this paper examines the effect of monetary policy on real output in China.The empirical results tend to reject the policy ineffectiveness proposition(PIP).They show that both anticipated and unanticipated money affect output in contrast with the PIP.An asymmetry in the effects of monetary policy on output also was found to be statistically significant at 10%.The authors argue that the imperfect markets and the rigidity of prices account for the effectiveness of anticipated monetary policy on output in China.