中国未来经济增长及其国际经济地位展望

China's Economic Growth in Future and Prospect of Its International Economic Position

论文在分析国内外历史资料和经济增长因素的基础上 ,对中国和目前经济总量世界排名前五位国家的未来经济增长率、国内生产总值以及中国人均国内生产总值进行了预测 ,得出以下基本结论 :中国国内生产总值将于 2 0 0 5年超过法国 ,2 0 0 6年超过英国 ,2 0 1 2年超过德国 ,本世纪中叶 ,有可能超过日本 ,成为世界第二经济大国 ,但在本世纪内很难超过美国 ,成为世界第一经济大国 ;2 0 50年中国人均国内生产总值将达到中等发达国家 2 0 0 0年的水平。

Based on the analysis of historical data at home and abroad and economic growth factors,this paper forecasts economic growth rates,GDP of both China and the first five largest countries of the world in respect of the economic aggregate and per capita GDP of China.The basic results are:Chinese GDP will exceed that of France in 2005,United Kingdom in 2006,Germany in 2012 and Japan in the middle of the 21 st century,and Chinese will become the second largest economic country at that time.But it is almost impossible for Chinese GDP to exceed that of United States in the 21 st century.The per capita GDP of China in 2050 will reach that of middle developed countries in 2000.