中国金融发展的地区差距状况分析(1978-1999)

Change of Regional Financial Development Disparity in China(1978-1999)

对中国各地区１９７８－１９９９年金融资产相关比率（ＦＩＲ）及其他指标的计算结果表明：中国金融发展具有国家垄断、信贷供给制、机构科层设置、资源条块分割、金融深化迅速、金融资产高增长弹性、金融发展不平衡性显著、存贷比逐步下降等典型特征。金融发展地区差距具有先缩小后扩大、金融差距超过财政差距和经济差距、存贷比下降幅度明显不同等特征。中国分权化改革中，中央财政能力的下降是以中央金融控制能力的上升为前提的，中国牺牲了金融业的改革与发展，保证了渐进式改革的持续推行。中国金融业目前的发展现状，是对麦金农教授“中国之谜”的最有力解释。地方政府支配金融机构的意愿和能力伴随中国的分权化改革而增强，并带来了中国金融改革的惰性，导致了资源配置的双重失效，也使得中国的金融市场化改革变成了旷日持久的游戏。只有加快金融业开放步伐，改善政府治理结构，将政府在财政能力上的缺位变为到位，在金融发展上的越位变为归位，才能真正启动中国的金融市场化改革。

This paper measures China's disparity of regional fin ancial development during the period from 1978 to 1999.By calculating the Financial lnterrelations Ratio(FIR) and other financial indicators of China's various regions, we arrive at certain new findings and several new conclusions. The calculations imply that, characteristics of the regional financial development are as follows: state monopoly, loans allocation mechanism, hierarchical structure of institutions, resources divided by central departments(Tiao Tiao) and sub-regions(Kuai kuai),rapid financial deepening, high-growth elasticity of financial assets,remarkable disparity among regions,gradual drop in the deposit/loan ratio, etc.. Since China undertook the policies of reform and opening up to the outside world, China's financial industry has been performing the functions of public finance. Since mid-1990s,financial industry's function of equalization surpassed that of public finance, the arising of central govemment's financial capacity is the precondition of its falling of public finance capacity. Thus, financial industry paid the cost of gradual reform. To promote the gradual reform,China sacrificed both the development and the reform of finance. To start up the reform of finance, we must speed up the openness of finance sectors, improve the govemance of government ,change the govemment functions, transfer its public finance capacity from“out of place”to“in place”,and transfer its finance capacity from“exceeding its place”to“come back to its place”.