热稳定剂生产现状及需求预测

Production situation and demand trend of heat stabilizers

热稳定剂是重要的塑料加工助剂之一。 1 999年北美、西欧、日本共消费热稳定剂约 31万t,分别约为 8万、1 6万、7万t。北美有机锡和复合金属类热稳定剂各约占 40 % ,铅盐低于 2 0 % ;西欧铅盐热稳定剂占 60 % ,而复合金属类占 30 % ,有机锡类低于 1 0 %。预计 1 999～ 2 0 0 4年北美热稳定剂需求量为 1 0万t,年均增长率 4 2 % ;西欧为 1 7万t,年均增长率 1 0 % ;日本需求量维持约 7万t。复合金属类 (尤其是无毒Ca/Zn)的增长高于平均增长率 ,而铅盐将基本不变或呈负增长。 1 999年我国热稳定剂产能约 9万t/a ,产量 7 65万t。我国PVC工业的快速发展为热稳定剂行业提供广阔的发展空间 ,预计到 2 0 0 5年需求量将达到约 1 6万t。热稳定剂行业向高效、低毒、复合型、无污染方向发展已成总趋势。建议积极发展复合金属盐和有机锡类热稳定剂 ,特别是利用资源优势发展稀土类热稳定剂。

Heat stabilizers are key plastic processing additives.The total consumption of heat stabilizers in 1999 was about 80 kt,160 kt and 70 kt in North America,West Europe and Japan respectively.In North America organotin varieties and mixed metal varieties each account for about 40% and lead varieties account for less than 20%.In West Europe lead varieties account for 60%,mixed metal varieties account for 30% and organotin varieties account for less than 10%.It is estimated that from 1999 to 2004 the demand of heat stabilizers will be 100 kt and the annual average growth rate will be 4.2% in North America,the demand will be 170 kt and the average annual growth rate will be 1.0% in West Europe and the demand will be maintained at 70 kt in Japan.The growth of mixed metal varieties (especially nontoxic Ca/Zn) will be higher than the average growth rate whereas lead varieties will remain flat or have a negative growth.The capacity of heat stabilizers in China was about 90 kt/a and the output was 76.5 kt in 1999.The rapid development of the PVC sector in China has provided a broad development space for the heat stabilizer sector.It is expected that by 2005 the demand will reach 160 kt.The overall development trend of the heat stabilizer sector should be high effect,low toxicity,mixed variety and no pollution.It is proposed that mixed metal and organotin varieties should be vigorously developed.Abundant resources should be utilized to develop rare earth varieties.