因子型油气田开发预测增长模型

THE ACCRETING PREDICTION MODEL OF THE FACTOR PATTERN FOR OIL-GAS PRODUCTION

本文基于 btc因子型模型 ,提出了一种参数少、易于求解各类开发指标的新型 btc参数因子型增长模型。推导出了开发速度、采出程度、无量纲开法速度、最终采收率等油气开发指标的数学关系式。其待定系数由 3个系数采用幂函数拟合法求取。对萨马特洛油田进行了实例计算 ,其预测曲线与实际曲线符合较好。表明该模型可作为油气田指标预测。

A new prediction model for oil gas production is established on the basis of the factor pattern with fewer parameters.Different development indexes can be casily extracted by using this factor pattern.Such mathematical expressions as recovery rates and recovery percentage of reserve have been established.There are three parameters which can be extracted by adopting the analysis of regression of the power law.A practical study in the Samotlorskoye oil field indicates that the prediction curve is the same as the practical data.Therefore,the method is feasible and reliable to predict the development indexes in the production of oil gas field.