模糊随机方法在震灾风险评价中的应用

THE APPLICATION OF FUZZY RANDOM METHOD IN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT

自然灾害系统是一个复杂系统 ,存在着大量的不确定性 ,这种不确定性既有随机性 ,又有模糊性。目前常用的处理地震危险性分析中不确定性因素的方法是概率统计方法 ,但是很多情况下随机性和模糊性是共存的。为此引入模糊集理论 ,将随机性与模糊性相结合 ,即在概率风险的基础上 ,结合事件发生概率的可能性 ,应用信息分配方法 ;在不完备数据的基础上构造计算模糊随机风险的模型。通过实例计算得到的结果精确度较高。

Natural disaster system is very complex that exists lots of uncertainties which contain randomness and fuzziness. At present the method of probability and statistics is commonly used in analyzing the earthquake danger. However in many cases randomness and fuzziness exist together, therefore we introduce fuzzy set theory to combine randomness and fuzziness, that is to combine the possibility of events based on probability risk by using information distribution method and construct models to calculate fuzzy random risk based on incomplete data.