化疗患者口腔炎的高危因素及应用数学模型对口腔炎的预测

Study on the Risk Factors of Stomatitis Caused By Chemotherapy and Predicting Stomatitis in Patients with Malignancies Using a Mathematical Model

目的 :研究癌症患者化疗后口腔炎发生的高危因素 ,建立数学模型 ,对口腔炎作出预测。方法 :对 83例癌症患者进行研究 ,按口腔炎发生与否分为口腔炎组和对照组 ,对 15例临床指标行单因素、多因素Logistic回归分析及判别分析。结果 :多因素Logistic回归分析提示持续灌注、体力状态、白细胞计数及口腔pH值 4项指标为口腔炎的高危因素 ;据高危因素所建立的判别函数 ,阳性预测值为 85 2 %、阴性预测值为 94 6%、判别准确率为 91 6%。结论 :持续灌注、体力状态、白细胞计数及口腔pH值 4项指标为口腔炎的高危因素 ;据此所建立的判别函数模型简单 ,能较准确地预测口腔炎的发生 。

Objective To study the risk factors of stomatitis caused by chemotherapy and established a mathematical model to predict stomatitis in patients with malignancies.Methods 83 cases were divided into two groups according to the status of stomatitis,15 factors were analysed using single,multifactorial Logistic regression and discriminant analysis.Results Multifactorial Logistic regression showed that the continuous infusion,performance status,white blood cell count and pH value of the mouth were the risk factors of stomatitis.Fisher's linear discriminant function was set up using these 4 factors by discriminant analysis.According to this mathematical model,the positive predictive value,negative predictive value and predictive accuracy of the statue of stomatitis were 65.2%,94 6% and 91 6% respectively.Conclusions The factors of continuous infusion,performance status,white blood cell count and pH value of the mouth was the risk factors of stomatitis.The mathematical model of discriminant function established by risk factors was simple and could predict the status of stomatitis accurately.It might have some value in clinical application.