水资源需求预测研究

A Survey of Research on Water Resources Demand Forecast

叙述了国内外在水资源需求预测方面的研究概况 .在系统研究水资源需求预测的常用预测方法和模型的基础上 ,对过去需水量预测中存在的主要问题进行了分析 ,并对需水量预测中长期需水量预测结果与实际情况误差较大的问题作了深入探讨 ,认为 ,对需水量变化规律认识的不足是产生需水量预测误差的主要原因 .指出 ,对水资源需求预测方法及水资源需求量的预测研究都有待于进一步完善 .

The research conducted by experts at home and abroad on the forecast for water resources demand is expounded.Based on the common methods and patterns used in the forecast,the relevant problems are analyzed and the errors in the forecast for long term water demand are discussed.The errors are chiefly caused by the inefficient understanding of the regularity governing the changes in water demand.Thus further improvement should be made in the methods and the research on water demand forceast.